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Home/Geopolitics/Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
ManifoldGeopoliticsUpdated 6m ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]

Market probability
8.6%
Little changed over 24 hours
59 days until the event deadline
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$2.3K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 2, 1:27 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ2.3K

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ2.3K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.224H-0.27D-0.2
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

45/ 100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement4

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity63

Related markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

3%YESTrust 89
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

1%YESTrust 67
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
15Low
Where the price path tends to go next679 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~43h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Current probability
8.6%
7-day range
8.6% – 8.9%
Resolves
Oct 31, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

45/100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+44
  • Price steadiness+29
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
Trust score45 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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