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Home/Macro / Fed/Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KalshiMacro / FedUpdated 4m ago

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

Market probability
0.5%
Little changed over 24 hours
13 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 16, 2026 at 1:55 PM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.25% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.25% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution source: If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's off…

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 16, 2026 at 1:55 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 3, 5:46 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Market data

24h volume

$93.5

Liquidity

$0

Total volume

$605.5

Category
Macro / Fed
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

21/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement0

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity

Insufficient data — this venue reports no volume or book depth for this market, so liquidity can't be measured (unknown, not necessarily poor).

Related markets

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

1%YESTrust 34
Kalshi$99.8K 24h

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

1%YESTrust 34
Kalshi$81.5K 24h

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

2%
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Low liquidity score (37)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
10Low
Where the price path tends to go next718 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Venue
Kalshi
Open interest
$507.5
Spread
1.0 pts
Best bid
0.0%
Best ask
1.0%
7-day range
0.5% – 0.5%
Resolves
Sep 16, 2026
Resolution
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's off…

Trust breakdown

21/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+29
  • Price steadiness+30
  • Missing market data-15
  • Thin liquidity-20
Trust score21 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Kalshi

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

YES
Trust 33
Kalshi$10.2K 24h

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

54%YESTrust 16
Kalshi$5.7K 24h

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

1%YESTrust 28
Kalshi$2K 24h

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

100%YESTrust 23
Kalshi$121.5 24h
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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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