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Home/Crypto/Ethereum price at Sep 2, 2026 at 3pm EDT?
KalshiCryptoUpdated 6m ago

Ethereum price at Sep 2, 2026 at 3pm EDT?

Market probability
1.5%
−7.5 percentage points
over 24 hours9.0% → 1.5%
Less than a day until the event deadline
Deadline: September 2, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price. The probability moved another 7.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Unsettled

The probability moved another 7.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 3 PM EDT is between 2380-2384.99 at 3 PM EDT on Sep 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 3 PM EDT is between 2380-2384.99 at 3 PM EDT on Sep 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution source: If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERT…

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 7.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (9.0% → 1.5%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 2, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 2, 2:57 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±33 pts.

TrendingLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Trending

A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.

Market data

24h volume

$66

Liquidity

$0

Total volume

$103.6

Change (pts)1H-7.56H-7.524H-7.57D-7.5
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

Settlement-stage — price is pinned near resolution. Read it as a settlement signal, not a fresh forecast.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement99

Magnitude of recent probability change

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Directional drift sustained across 1h / 6h / 24h windows

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next653 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityLow· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Category
Crypto
Venue
Kalshi
Open interest
$66
Spread
3.0 pts
Best bid
0.0%
Best ask
3.0%
7-day range
1.5% – 9.0%
Resolves
Sep 2, 2026
Resolution
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERT…
Liquidity

Insufficient data — this venue reports no volume or book depth for this market, so liquidity can't be measured (unknown, not necessarily poor).

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+24
  • Price steadiness+0
  • Missing market data-15
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Kalshi

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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