As of Oct 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 57.3% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 1K mana of pool liquidity.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — the venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market, traded by a small group of accounts.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
0 mana
Total volume
8.5K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
60
Trades
148
over 42 days
Largest order
2.5K mana
9.8K mana traded across these 148 trades (last 42 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
[tweet]This seems like generally good tech, but kind of a crazy price? ($800 AUD for me to buy locally) Resolves YES/NO 3 months after purchasing the toothbrush Resolves N/A if I do not purchase it It only really needs to save you that much in time, or one major dental cost throughout your life to payoff, is that likely?
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
[tweet]This seems like generally good tech, but kind of a crazy price? ($800 AUD for me to buy locally) Resolves YES/NO 3 months after purchasing the toothbrush Resolves N/A if I do not purchase it It only really needs to save you that much in time, or one major dental cost throughout your life to payoff, is that likely? Would I regret the purchase? Product page (AU link), "Brush. Floss. Rinse. In just 3 minutes" Update 2026-09-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If purchased on sale, regret will be evaluated based on the original price of $500 USD / $800 AUD. Update 2026-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will only resolve based on purchasing the original model; a redesigned or updated model will not count towards resolution.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 9:38 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.