Market prices a 23.0% chance of “Ethereum price at Aug 6, 2026 at 5pm EDT” — up 4.5 points in 24 hours
Original Kalshi title: “Ethereum price at Aug 6, 2026 at 5pm EDT?”
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price. The probability moved another 1.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
What this market actually measures
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 1930-1969.99 at 5 PM EDT on Aug 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 1930-1969.99 at 5 PM EDT on Aug 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution source: If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERT…
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 1.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 4.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (18.5% → 23.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesAugust 6, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 6, 2:30 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±33 pts.
What's happening
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
Market data
24h volume
$10.5
Liquidity
$0