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Home/Crypto/Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 10pm EDT?
KalshiCryptoUpdated 7m ago

Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 10pm EDT?

Market probability
2.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
Less than a day until the event deadline
Deadline: August 16, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 10 PM EDT is between 1905-1909.99 at 10 PM EDT on Aug 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 10 PM EDT is between 1905-1909.99 at 10 PM EDT on Aug 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution source: If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERT…

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 16, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 16, 9:58 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±32 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

Market data

24h volume

$171

Liquidity

$0

Total volume

$171

Category
Crypto
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

2/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement0

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity

Insufficient data — this venue reports no volume or book depth for this market, so liquidity can't be measured (unknown, not necessarily poor).

Related markets

Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 10pm EDT?

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Kalshi$963.4 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 10pm EDT?

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Kalshi$753.4 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 10pm EDT?

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Resolves in 0 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next926 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Venue
Kalshi
Open interest
$171
Spread
4.0 pts
Best bid
0.0%
Best ask
4.0%
7-day range
2.0% – 2.5%
Resolves
Aug 16, 2026
Resolution
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERT…

Trust breakdown

2/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+25
  • Price steadiness+30
  • Missing market data-15
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score2 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Kalshi

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Kalshi
$429.3 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 10pm EDT?

1%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$388.6 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 10pm EDT?

2%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$368 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 10pm EDT?

2%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$191 24h
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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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