ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?79%▲17.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?37%▲2.5Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?40%▼1.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?73%▼4.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?5%▼7.0Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?44%▼17.4Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?67%▲6.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?20%▼5.0Will Byron Donalds get 50.000% or more of the vote in the Florida Republican Primary for Governor?79%▲29.0Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?13%▲2.9Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?0%▼10.3Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?62%▼0.2Will Apple stock go up?25%▼45.7Will DeepSeek V4 Pro GA be better than Gemini 3.5 Pro?64%▼25.1Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?70%▲20.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?8%▲3.2
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?79%▲17.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?37%▲2.5Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?40%▼1.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?73%▼4.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?5%▼7.0Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?44%▼17.4Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?67%▲6.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?20%▼5.0Will Byron Donalds get 50.000% or more of the vote in the Florida Republican Primary for Governor?79%▲29.0Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?13%▲2.9Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?0%▼10.3Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?62%▼0.2Will Apple stock go up?25%▼45.7Will DeepSeek V4 Pro GA be better than Gemini 3.5 Pro?64%▼25.1Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?70%▲20.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?8%▲3.2
Home/Crypto/Ethereum price at Aug 13, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiCryptoUpdated 11m ago

Ethereum price at Aug 13, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market probability
6.5%
Little changed over 24 hours
Less than a day until the event deadline
Deadline: August 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (0 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 1810-1849.99 at 5 PM EDT on Aug 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 1810-1849.99 at 5 PM EDT on Aug 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution source: If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERT…

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 13, 2:14 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

Market data

24h volume

$342

Liquidity

$0

Total volume

$342

Change (pts)1H+1.56H0.024H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement41

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity

Insufficient data — this venue reports no volume or book depth for this market, so liquidity can't be measured (unknown, not necessarily poor).

Related markets

Ethereum price at Aug 13, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

40%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$847.2 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 13, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

9%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$332 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 13, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

44%YESTrust 0
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next681 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~1h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Category
Crypto
Venue
Kalshi
Open interest
$337
Spread
3.0 pts
Best bid
5.0%
Best ask
8.0%
7-day range
5.0% – 6.5%
Resolves
Aug 13, 2026
Resolution
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERT…

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+27
  • Price steadiness+18
  • Missing market data-15
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Kalshi

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Kalshi
$167.3 24h

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?

70%YESTrust 0
Polymarket$71.2K 24h

Will Claude Opus 4.6 have more than 2,500 Manifold Mana by August 13, 2026?

97%YESTrust 23
ManifoldṀ283.8 24h

Will there be codex reset on August 13,2026

57%YESTrust 7
ManifoldṀ208.3 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]