Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?67%25.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?76%14.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?51%3.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?92%1.5Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?42%1.0Spider-Man: Brand New Day grosses over $2B?89%47.3Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be proven flawed by the end of August?25%25.3Will I finish reading the Iliad by the 3rd of August?26%26.4Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT?94%36.5Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?28%18.5Will I be jobless at some point before end of 2027?47%13.2Will I attend Citadel (a Hack Club hackathon)?35%14.6Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?6%44.4Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?60%4.0Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?31%20.5Will Trump wear glasses in August?66%59.0

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