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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?27%▲3.0 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?23%▼25.5 Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼14.0 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?90%▲13.7 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?10%▼14.0 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?3%▼6.1 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?86%▲52.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?45%▲9.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?53%▼8.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?7%▼3.0 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?58%▲6.7 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?22%▲7.6 Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?53%▼1.3 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?70%▼25.0 Raul Castro in USA before end of 2026?10%▼13.5 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?9%▼3.0

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?27%▲3.0 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?23%▼25.5 Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼14.0 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?90%▲13.7 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?10%▼14.0 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?3%▼6.1 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?86%▲52.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?45%▲9.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?53%▼8.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?7%▼3.0 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?58%▲6.7 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?22%▲7.6 Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?53%▼1.3 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?70%▼25.0 Raul Castro in USA before end of 2026?10%▼13.5 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?9%▼3.0

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Hot Markets

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?27%▲3.0 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?23%▼25.5 Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼14.0 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?90%▲13.7 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?10%▼14.0 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?3%▼6.1 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?86%▲52.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?45%▲9.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?53%▼8.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?7%▼3.0 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?58%▲6.7 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?22%▲7.6 Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?53%▼1.3 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?70%▼25.0 Raul Castro in USA before end of 2026?10%▼13.5 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?9%▼3.0

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?27%▲3.0 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?23%▼25.5 Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼14.0 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?90%▲13.7 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?10%▼14.0 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?3%▼6.1 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?86%▲52.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?45%▲9.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?53%▼8.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?7%▼3.0 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?58%▲6.7 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?22%▲7.6 Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?53%▼1.3 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?70%▼25.0 Raul Castro in USA before end of 2026?10%▼13.5 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?9%▼3.0

Event · resolves around 2026-09-16

Fed — rate decision · Sep 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $456.7K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Polymarket	Macro / Fed	53%	-8.0 pts	$311.5K	86	73	Confirmed move
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Polymarket	Macro / Fed	2%	+0.4 pts	$145.3K	85	86	Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.