ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?44%▲5.0US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?17%▼6.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?92%▼1.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?16%▲10.5Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?2%▲1.3Will Rodri join Barcelona?78%▲4.6Will a new prize drawing be opened before end of August?99%▲19.5Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?84%▼4.9Strait of Hormuz is an American territory before start of 2030?9%▼15.5Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?79%▲11.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?14%▲0.0Will Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle report combined 2027 capital expenditure above $600B?90%▲40.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?62%▼2.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?66%▲2.0Ethereum price at Aug 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?93%▲1.0Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?40%▼2.5
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?44%▲5.0US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?17%▼6.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?92%▼1.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?16%▲10.5Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?2%▲1.3Will Rodri join Barcelona?78%▲4.6Will a new prize drawing be opened before end of August?99%▲19.5Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?84%▼4.9Strait of Hormuz is an American territory before start of 2030?9%▼15.5Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?79%▲11.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?14%▲0.0Will Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle report combined 2027 capital expenditure above $600B?90%▲40.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?62%▼2.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?66%▲2.0Ethereum price at Aug 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?93%▲1.0Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?40%▼2.5

Event · resolves around 2026-08-16

Bitcoin — price targets · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $164K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 16?PolymarketCrypto99%-0.3 pts$89.1K8065Developing
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 16?PolymarketCrypto97%+0.9 pts$74.9K7841Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCryptoMacro / FedPoliticsAI / TechGeopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]