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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?19%▼18.6US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?56%▼10.0Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?0%▼21.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?68%▼10.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?10%▼18.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7?37%▼6.0Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?48%▼10.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?25%▼5.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?96%▲4.0Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?100%▲21.6Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?4%▼21.3US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?85%▼1.0Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?68%▲55.7Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?28%▼11.5Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?3%▼4.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?64%▲11.0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?19%▼18.6US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?56%▼10.0Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?0%▼21.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?68%▼10.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?10%▼18.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7?37%▼6.0Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?48%▼10.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?25%▼5.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?96%▲4.0Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?100%▲21.6Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?4%▼21.3US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?85%▼1.0Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?68%▲55.7Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?28%▼11.5Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?3%▼4.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?64%▲11.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-07

Bitcoin — price targets · Aug 2026

3 related contracts across Polymarket · $201K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 7?PolymarketCrypto100%0.0 pts$75.2K7967Developing
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 7?PolymarketCrypto100%+0.1 pts$68.2K7866Developing
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 7?PolymarketCrypto0%0.0 pts$57.6K7967Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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