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Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?60%▼25.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?84%▼7.5 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?60%▲7.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?39%▼6.0 Spider-Man: Brand New Day grosses over $2B?53%▲9.9 Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?32%▼17.6 Will I finish reading the Iliad by the 3rd of August?27%▼23.5 Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT?73%▲15.5 Iran leadership change by August 31?6%▲2.0 Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?52%▼6.5 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?52%▲20.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?0%▼2.5 Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in July 2026?93%▲6.0 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?2%▼0.7 Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?13%▲7.0 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?24%▼1.0

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?60%▼25.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?84%▼7.5 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?60%▲7.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?39%▼6.0 Spider-Man: Brand New Day grosses over $2B?53%▲9.9 Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?32%▼17.6 Will I finish reading the Iliad by the 3rd of August?27%▼23.5 Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT?73%▲15.5 Iran leadership change by August 31?6%▲2.0 Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?52%▼6.5 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?52%▲20.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?0%▼2.5 Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in July 2026?93%▲6.0 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?2%▼0.7 Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?13%▲7.0 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?24%▼1.0

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Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?60%▼25.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?84%▼7.5 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?60%▲7.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?39%▼6.0 Spider-Man: Brand New Day grosses over $2B?53%▲9.9 Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?32%▼17.6 Will I finish reading the Iliad by the 3rd of August?27%▼23.5 Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT?73%▲15.5 Iran leadership change by August 31?6%▲2.0 Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?52%▼6.5 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?52%▲20.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?0%▼2.5 Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in July 2026?93%▲6.0 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?2%▼0.7 Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?13%▲7.0 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?24%▼1.0

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?60%▼25.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?84%▼7.5 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?60%▲7.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?39%▼6.0 Spider-Man: Brand New Day grosses over $2B?53%▲9.9 Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?32%▼17.6 Will I finish reading the Iliad by the 3rd of August?27%▼23.5 Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT?73%▲15.5 Iran leadership change by August 31?6%▲2.0 Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?52%▼6.5 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?52%▲20.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?0%▼2.5 Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in July 2026?93%▲6.0 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?2%▼0.7 Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?13%▲7.0 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?24%▼1.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-31

Rebecca Shepherd — election · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $1.4M traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	0%	0.0 pts	$1.1M	83	73	Developing
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	100%	0.0 pts	$225K	74	67	Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.