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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?45%▼9.0 US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?9%▼5.5 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?11%▼10.0 Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night?80%▲23.4 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?7%▲1.3 Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?85%▲27.3 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?24%▲2.0 Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?22%▼28.2 By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?16%▼34.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?92%▼2.5 does 1 + 1 = 297%▲31.1 Will a new country join the European Union before 2027?7%▼29.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?12%▼1.0 Fed rate hike in 2026?76%▼3.0 Will Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos personally travel to the Moon aboard a vehicle from one of their own companies before 2036?21%▼28.7 Ethereum price at Jul 28, 2026 at 11pm EDT?18%▲15.5

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?45%▼9.0 US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?9%▼5.5 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?11%▼10.0 Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night?80%▲23.4 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?7%▲1.3 Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?85%▲27.3 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?24%▲2.0 Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?22%▼28.2 By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?16%▼34.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?92%▼2.5 does 1 + 1 = 297%▲31.1 Will a new country join the European Union before 2027?7%▼29.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?12%▼1.0 Fed rate hike in 2026?76%▼3.0 Will Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos personally travel to the Moon aboard a vehicle from one of their own companies before 2036?21%▼28.7 Ethereum price at Jul 28, 2026 at 11pm EDT?18%▲15.5

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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?45%▼9.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?91%▼4.0 US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?9%▼5.5 Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night?80%▲23.4 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?7%▲2.6 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?11%▼11.5 Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?85%▲27.3 Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?22%▼28.2 By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?16%▼34.0 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?24%▲2.0 does 1 + 1 = 297%▲31.1 Will a new country join the European Union before 2027?7%▼29.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?12%▼1.0 Ethereum price at Jul 28, 2026 at 11pm EDT?18%▲15.5 Will Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos personally travel to the Moon aboard a vehicle from one of their own companies before 2036?21%▼28.7 Will Wero reach 10 countries before 2028?59%▲9.0

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?45%▼9.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?91%▼4.0 US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?9%▼5.5 Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night?80%▲23.4 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?7%▲2.6 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?11%▼11.5 Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?85%▲27.3 Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?22%▼28.2 By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?16%▼34.0 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?24%▲2.0 does 1 + 1 = 297%▲31.1 Will a new country join the European Union before 2027?7%▼29.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?12%▼1.0 Ethereum price at Jul 28, 2026 at 11pm EDT?18%▲15.5 Will Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos personally travel to the Moon aboard a vehicle from one of their own companies before 2036?21%▼28.7 Will Wero reach 10 countries before 2028?59%▲9.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-28

Rebecca Shepherd — election · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $1.4M traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	0%	0.0 pts	$1.1M	83	73	Developing
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	100%	0.0 pts	$225K	74	67	Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.