Event · resolves around 2026-11-10
China — event · Nov 2026
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will the US or China officially announce a Busan trade truce extension past Nov 10, 2026, by September 25, 2026? | Manifold | 47% | -12.5 pts | 0 | Likely noise |
| Will the US or China officially announce a Busan trade truce extension past Nov 10, 2026, by November 6, 2026? | Manifold | 76% | +15.7 pts | 0 | Likely noise |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.