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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?82%▼2.5 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?56%▲11.5 Israel closes its airspace by September 30?10%▲5.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?27%▼2.0 Iran full airspace closure by September 30?12%▲0.0 Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?17%▼26.5 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?29%▲6.5 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?13%▲1.4 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?62%▼7.0 Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?48%▼9.7 Will The Odyssey ever surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day in daily domestic box office gross during their initial runs?73%▲20.5 Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?73%▲2.0 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?10%▼4.0 Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on October 1st?29%▼17.7 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?12%▲2.8 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?89%▲3.0

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?82%▼2.5 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?56%▲11.5 Israel closes its airspace by September 30?10%▲5.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?27%▼2.0 Iran full airspace closure by September 30?12%▲0.0 Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?17%▼26.5 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?29%▲6.5 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?13%▲1.4 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?62%▼7.0 Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?48%▼9.7 Will The Odyssey ever surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day in daily domestic box office gross during their initial runs?73%▲20.5 Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?73%▲2.0 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?10%▼4.0 Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on October 1st?29%▼17.7 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?12%▲2.8 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?89%▲3.0

Event · resolves around 2026-10-31

Spider-Man — event · Oct 2026

2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide)	Manifold	Macro / Fed	99%	0.0 pts	Ṁ0	38	7	Developing
Will Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31?	Manifold	Geopolitics	21%	0.0 pts	Ṁ0	30	1	Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.