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Wednesday, November 4, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 69.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 70.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 18.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 11.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 17.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 53.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 45.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 45.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (309 in 24h)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Polymarketyes
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan?Manifoldyes
- Will the whole Senate vote to find Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress before Election Day?Manifoldno
- Will James Talarico appear on Joe Rogan before the election?Manifoldno
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Polymarketyes
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?Polymarketno
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.