Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
120 mana
Total volume
222.6 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the whole Senate vote to find Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress before Election Day?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 3:23 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 8.9% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 120 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
8.9%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soonNot live — snapshot Nov 3, 3:23 AM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
45%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
9
Trades
12
over 88 days
Largest order
44 mana
220.8 mana traded across these 12 trades (last 88 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$220.8 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve "yes" if the whole Senate votes to find Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress before the day of the midterms of 2026. The adoption of a resolution that finds Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress or directs actions to be taken, consistent with a finding of contempt of Congress (such as a referral for prosecution as a result of refusing to answer questions).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve "yes" if the whole Senate votes to find Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress before the day of the midterms of 2026. The adoption of a resolution that finds Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress or directs actions to be taken, consistent with a finding of contempt of Congress (such as a referral for prosecution as a result of refusing to answer questions). This market will resolve "no" if that doesn't happen before November 3, 2026. Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end-all, be-all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair or N/A the market. I will give notice before I do this.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 3, 5:11 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Resolving soon
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
- Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
11Low
Where the price path tends to go next369 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0