ProbCastOdds Reliability

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Thursday, October 1, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Moved down 59.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-59.028%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.025%Confirmed move
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-7.026%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.034%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+8.066%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?

Moved down 6.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-6.535%Likely noise
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?

Moved down 22.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-22.027%Likely noise
Will Calvin Wang submit the 21W.023 Discussion Post Homework on time? (Writing Advice from Stephen King)

Moved up 30.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+30.782%Likely noise

Settled (140 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.