Will this MARKET have UNDER 100 TRADERS by the end of September?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 9:12 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 96.4% (up from 92.6% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ4.6K traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ101 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth. The probability moved another 1 point in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 1 point in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
If it gets under 100 traders by the end of September, this market resolves yes. If it gets 100 or more, it resolves no.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
If it gets under 100 traders by the end of September, this market resolves yes. If it gets 100 or more, it resolves no. This happens to be farming the unique trader bonus, but I intend for it to be more of an experiment.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 3.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours (92.6% → 96.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 30, 9:12 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 9.8 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 35 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ4.6K
Liquidity
Ṁ101
Total volume
Ṁ6.8K
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 96.4%
- 7-day range
- 84.0% – 96.4%
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026