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Saturday, September 5, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 60.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 15.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 16.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 19.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (98 in 24h)
- Ethereum price at Sep 5, 2026 at 2am EDT?Kalshino
- Will a bot win the Metaculus Summer CupManifoldyes
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on September 4?Polymarketno
- Ethereum price at Sep 4, 2026 at 11pm EDT?Kalshino
- Astra available to OpenAI Plus users before September 7th?Manifoldyes
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Polymarketyes
- Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?Polymarketyes
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 4?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.