Daily archive · times in ET · all days
Saturday, September 5, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 7.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 1.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 31.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 24.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 18.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (31 in 24h)
- Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)Polymarketno
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?Polymarketno
- Will Falcons Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?Polymarketno
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 5?Polymarketyes
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?Polymarketyes
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 5?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.