Prediction Markets Daily Read — Wednesday, September 2, 2026 | ProbCast

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Hot Markets

Bitcoin Up or Down on September 2?37%▲13.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?68%▼8.5 Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?12%▼6.5 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?80%▼7.0 Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?87%▲6.0 Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?90%▲29.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?39%▼5.0 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 2?95%▲9.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?65%▲25.5 Israel closes its airspace by September 30?14%▲4.0 Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?29%▼20.2 Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?26%▼18.8 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?19%▲0.0 Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202676%▲47.4 Will USPS reject at least 100,000 mail ballots due to Trump's executive order in 2026?34%▼16.1 Will Ed Markey get at least 60% of the vote in the Massachusetts Senate Primary (Democratic)?93%▲43.0

Bitcoin Up or Down on September 2?37%▲13.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?68%▼8.5 Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?12%▼6.5 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?80%▼7.0 Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?87%▲6.0 Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?90%▲29.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?39%▼5.0 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 2?95%▲9.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?65%▲25.5 Israel closes its airspace by September 30?14%▲4.0 Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?29%▼20.2 Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?26%▼18.8 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?19%▲0.0 Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202676%▲47.4 Will USPS reject at least 100,000 mail ballots due to Trump's executive order in 2026?34%▼16.1 Will Ed Markey get at least 60% of the vote in the Massachusetts Senate Primary (Democratic)?93%▲43.0

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Wednesday, September 2, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved down 8.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.568%Confirmed move

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-7.080%Confirmed move

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.039%Confirmed move

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.060%Confirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

0.019%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?

Moved up 29.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+29.090%Likely noise

Will my brother start reading Harry Potter in the next week?

Moved down 41.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-41.78%Likely noise

Will Ed Markey get at least 60% of the vote in the Massachusetts Senate Primary (Democratic)?

Moved up 43.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+43.093%Likely noise

Settled (68 in 24h)

Daily CoinflipManifoldyes
Ethereum price at Sep 2, 2026 at 1am EDT?Kalshino
Will my supervisor accept my thesis topic?Manifoldyes
(FREE MANA???) Will I get demoted to Silver?Manifoldyes
Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on September 1st?Manifoldno

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Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?

Polymarketyes

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 1?Polymarketno

Trump says or posts something deprecating about Dolly Parton within a week of her passingManifoldno

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