ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Wednesday, September 2, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.044%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-1.056%Confirmed move
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.573%Confirmed move
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.083%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.012%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Bitcoin Up or Down on September 2?

Moved down 34.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-34.05%Likely noise
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?

Moved up 25.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+25.537%Likely noise
Will I regret purchasing a Dyson camerajet? ($500USD Toothbrush)

Moved down 22.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-22.158%Likely noise

Settled (117 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Prediction Markets Daily Read — Wednesday, September 2, 2026 | ProbCast