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Sunday, August 30, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 38.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 38.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 16.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (77 in 24h)
- Will Mohan Bhagwat be taken into custody by a U.S. government authority in New York City before August 31, 2026?Manifoldno
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August?Polymarketyes
- Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in August?Polymarketyes
- Ethereum price at Aug 30, 2026 at 6pm EDT?Kalshino
- SHORT FUSE - Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Tour Championship?Manifoldyes
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Polymarketno
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?Polymarketno
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.