Prediction Markets Daily Read — Sunday, August 30, 2026 | ProbCast

ProbCastOdds Reliability

Today Top Movers Markets What Changed Accuracy Watchlist

⌘K

Checking…

Hot Markets

Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August?29%▼31.5 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 30?79%▲11.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?51%▼5.0 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 30?71%▲7.0 Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?99%▲15.4 Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?8%▼17.0 Will Tadej Pogacar hold the red jersey for the entire 2026 Vuelta a Espana?1%▼84.7 Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?19%▼76.8 Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?33%▲7.5 US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?61%▼5.2 Will the Trump admin allow the Colorado River to reach an inoperable level to declare a State of Emergency b4 midterms?7%▼47.6 Person alive now becomes functionally immortal33%▼33.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?47%▲3.0 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?41%▲3.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?1%▼4.0 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?90%▲1.0

Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August?29%▼31.5 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 30?79%▲11.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?51%▼5.0 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 30?71%▲7.0 Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?99%▲15.4 Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?8%▼17.0 Will Tadej Pogacar hold the red jersey for the entire 2026 Vuelta a Espana?1%▼84.7 Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?19%▼76.8 Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?33%▲7.5 US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?61%▼5.2 Will the Trump admin allow the Colorado River to reach an inoperable level to declare a State of Emergency b4 midterms?7%▼47.6 Person alive now becomes functionally immortal33%▼33.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?47%▲3.0 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?41%▲3.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?1%▼4.0 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?90%▲1.0

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Sunday, August 30, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.051%Confirmed move

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.041%Confirmed move

Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.01%Confirmed move

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.090%Confirmed move

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.563%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 30?

Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+11.079%Likely noise

Will Tadej Pogacar hold the red jersey for the entire 2026 Vuelta a Espana?

Moved down 84.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-84.71%Likely noise

Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?

Moved down 76.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-76.819%Likely noise

Settled (32 in 24h)

Will NO have more holders than YES when this market closes?Manifoldyes
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?Polymarketyes
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 30, 2026?Polymarketyes
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026?Polymarketyes
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?Polymarket

← 2026-08-29 Today

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram

Today Top Movers Events All Markets What Changed Venue Divergence Polymarket vs Kalshi Methodology Coverage Meta's Arena Watchlist Terms of Use Privacy Crypto

yes

Ethereum price at Aug 30, 2026 at 2am EDT?Kalshino

Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?Polymarketyes

Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on August 29?Polymarketno

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]