Will Mohan Bhagwat be taken into custody by a U.S. government authority in New York City before August 31, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 8.0%.
- Final market price
- 8.0%
- Event deadline
- August 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Mohan Bhagwat be taken into custody by a U.S. government authority in New York City before August 31, 2026? The final Manifold price was 8.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 8.0%.
- Market data as of
- September 1, 2026 at 10:43 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 14, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 43d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if Mohan Bhagwat is physically arrested or otherwise formally taken into custody—meaning he is not free to leave—by NYPD or a United States federal law-enforcement or immigration agency within New York City’s five boroughs between 12:00 a.m. ET on August 29 and 11:59:59 p.m.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if Mohan Bhagwat is physically arrested or otherwise formally taken into custody—meaning he is not free to leave—by NYPD or a United States federal law-enforcement or immigration agency within New York City’s five boroughs between 12:00 a.m. ET on August 29 and 11:59:59 p.m. ET on August 30, 2026.