Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?

**Resolves YES** if, at any point from 00:00 UTC on 1 September 2026 through 23:59 UTC on 30 September 2026, the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran launch a direct military strike targeting a United States military base or installation anywhere in the world. Otherwise **NO**. **Direct strike:** the launch of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, rockets, or one-way attack drones/UAVs that target, impact, or are intercepted in the immediate vicinity of a U.S. military facility. Interception does not matter — a launch that CENTCOM confirms was aimed at a U.S. facility counts. **Iran:** the state's official military forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular Iranian armed forces (Artesh). Strikes carried out solely by regional proxy militias (Houthis, Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, Hezbollah, etc.) do **not** count, unless U.S. Central Command or the U.S. Department of Defense publicly attributes the strike to Iranian forces directly. **Does NOT count:** attacks on commercial shipping, on non-U.S. bases, on embassies or diplomatic property, on allied forces at facilities that are not U.S. installations, cyber operations, sabotage, or any incident Iran's government denies and which CENTCOM/DoD does not attribute to Iranian forces. **Resolution source (in order):** (1) an official U.S. Central Command or Department of Defense statement; failing that, (2) concurring reports from at least two of Reuters, the Associated Press, and Agence France-Presse. If no qualifying strike is reported by these sources by 7 October 2026, this resolves NO. **Context at creation (29 Aug 2026):** Iran struck U.S. facilities in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain repeatedly in June and July 2026 (Operation Sa'eqeh, through phase 27 on 31 July). August 2026 passed with no qualifying strike; the Islamabad MoU ceasefire was extended ahead of its 17 August deadline and Qatari mediation was ongoing as of 27 August. Update 2026-08-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has updated the resolution standard to manage a conflict of interest: A public, attributable statement from CENTCOM, the Department of Defense, or the US government is strictly required for a YES resolution. Concurring news reports without official US government attribution will no longer suffice. On a close call or true coin-flip, the creator will resolve YES (against their own position) or resolve as N/A. Update 2026-09-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - On a close call, the market will resolve to N/A (rather than YES) to avoid conflict of interest. A public, attributable statement from CENTCOM, the Department of Defense, or the US government is strictly required; statements from anonymous officials do not qualify. Update 2026-09-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - U.S. aircraft carriers and destroyers under way do not qualify as a base, installation, or facility. Official named attribution from CENTCOM or the DoD specifically for land-based facilities is required for a YES resolution.