ProbCastOdds Reliability

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Wednesday, August 19, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?

Moved down 43.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-43.811%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?

Moved up 15.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+15.317%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 15.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-15.539%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?

Moved down 13.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-13.85%Confirmed move
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.023%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 20?

Moved down 20.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-20.719%Likely noise
OpenAI becomes public company in 2027 or sooner?

Moved up 28.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+28.976%Likely noise
Will SPY close above $776.34 on Friday, August 21, 2026?

Moved up 34.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+34.656%Likely noise

Settled (128 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.