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Wednesday, August 19, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 13.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 5.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 25.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 48.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 11.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (40 in 24h)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Eric Barlow be the GOP Nominee for Governor of Wyoming in 2026?Manifoldyes
- 🇺🇸🇨🇦 Will the U.S. and Canada reach a deal to prevent new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports by August 19, 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will Jared Moskowitz get 65.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 25 Democratic house primary?Manifoldno
- Will James Fishback get second in the Florida Republican primary for governor?
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.