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Sunday, August 16, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 25.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 31.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 29.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (44 in 24h)
- Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Polymarketno
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Polymarketno
- Ethereum price at Aug 15, 2026 at 10pm EDT?Kalshino
- Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)?Manifoldno
- Will a new prize drawing be opened before end of August?Manifoldyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.