ProbCastOdds Reliability

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Sunday, August 16, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-7.067%Confirmed move
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Moved down 9.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-9.85%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.014%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.043%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.011%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?

Moved up 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+13.066%Likely noise
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide)

Moved up 24.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+24.888%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Aug 17, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-11.026%Likely noise

Settled (53 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Prediction Markets Daily Read — Sunday, August 16, 2026 | ProbCast