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Friday, August 14, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 2.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 80.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 74.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 58.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (34 in 24h)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by election?Manifoldyes
- If the Clacton by-election is held, will Count Binface get at least 10 percent of the vote?Manifoldyes
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 13, 2026?Polymarketyes
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