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Friday, August 14, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 22.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 25.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 35.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (40 in 24h)
- S&P 500 closes above $7,800 at end of week?Manifoldno
- A National Mp publicly says Chris Luxon should go before end of Friday?Manifoldno
- Ethereum Up or Down on August 14?Polymarketyes
- Do you like 26% odds?Manifoldyes
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Polymarketyes
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.