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Thursday, August 13, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 6.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 26.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 29.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 45.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (60 in 24h)
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