ProbCastOdds Reliability
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?90%▼1.0Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?38%▼16.0US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?52%▼2.5Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?30%▼15.0Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?46%▲11.0Guillotines have a come back by 203021%▼28.3Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?28%▲4.0Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 21-27?17%▲7.6US Average Gas Price Is $4.4800 or more on September 28 2026?15%▼68.4Will one AI lab pull ahead before 2028?26%▼26.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?28%▲1.5Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?9%▼6.7US Average Gas Price Is $4.4900 or more on September 29 2026?26%▼34.1Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?16%▲3.7Will I find a wife by the end of 2027?23%▲2.0Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?8%▲1.4

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Thursday, August 13, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

Moved down 27.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-27.33%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-11.024%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+6.073%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Moved down 8.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.552%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?

Moved down 8.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.512%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

Moved up 37.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+37.059%Likely noise
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-4.047%Likely noise
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

Moved down 37.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-37.038%Likely noise

Settled (33 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.