ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?42%▲13.3Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?71%▲19.0Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?25%▼21.4US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?42%▲4.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?56%▲2.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?13%▲3.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?93%▲24.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?19%▼13.5Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?79%▲18.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?22%▲2.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?8%▼12.0Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?17%▼4.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22?45%▲23.5Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?35%▼8.5Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?44%▼15.0Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?7%▲2.1

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Saturday, August 8, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Moved down 10.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-10.559%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

Moved down 18.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-18.057%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.07%Confirmed move
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.021%Confirmed move
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.084%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Max Miller drop out of his congressional race before the deadline?

Moved down 28.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-28.42%Likely noise
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office >= 150M

Moved down 43.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-43.436%Likely noise
Will there be a codex limit reset on Monday August 10, 2026?

Moved up 54.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+54.193%Likely noise

Settled (98 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.