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Saturday, August 8, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.
Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 11.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 35.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 39.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 67.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (33 in 24h)
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