Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?91%32.3Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?23%3.0Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?43%4.6US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?13%3.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?36%3.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?18%15.0Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?22%12.1Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?75%9.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22?51%17.1US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?18%6.5Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?98%10.1Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?79%5.0Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?36%8.0Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September?87%5.5Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?14%2.0Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?6%7.8
ManifoldPoliticsUpdated 41d ago

Will Max Miller drop out of his congressional race before the deadline?

Market probability
1.7%
Little changed over 24 hours
41 days until the event deadline
Deadline: November 2, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

Data is not live — latest snapshot Aug 12, 5:49 PM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$8.9K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if U.S. Representative Max Miller officially withdraws from his 2026 reelection campaign for Ohio's 7th Congressional District on or before the official state-mandated deadline of August 10, 2026 (86 days prior to the general election).

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if U.S. Representative Max Miller officially withdraws from his 2026 reelection campaign for Ohio's 7th Congressional District on or before the official state-mandated deadline of August 10, 2026 (86 days prior to the general election). This market resolves to NO if he remains in the race past the August 10, 2026 deadline. The outcome will be determined using reports from the Ohio Secretary of State or major credible news outlets (e.g., AP News or CNN). Background U.S. Representative Max Miller (R-OH) is facing significant bipartisan and internal party pressure to exit his campaign for Ohio's 7th Congressional District following domestic abuse allegations raised by his ex-wife, Emily Moreno (daughter of Ohio U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno). Miller has strongly denied the allegations and recently pledged to self-fund his campaign with $1 million. Under Ohio state election guidelines, August 10, 2026, is the final deadline for a candidate to withdraw from the ballot and allow local county party leaders to select a replacement nominee. If Miller does not withdraw by this date, his name will legally remain on the ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 2, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 22, 5:52 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.

Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Stale price

The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.

  • Price has not updated recently (stale)
  • Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
29Low
Where the price path tends to go next806 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ8.9K

Category
Politics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
1.7%
Resolves
Nov 2, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

Related markets