ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?42%▼5.0Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?52%▲4.4Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?54%▲1.5Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?56%▲1.0Fed rate hike in 2026?73%▲1.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?60%▲6.0Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?13%▲5.3S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 11?81%▲9.5Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?20%▲3.0Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?32%▲6.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?64%▲6.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?0%▼23.4Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?20%▲12.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?66%▲12.8Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?24%▼10.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?79%▼12.5

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?

Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-9.010%Confirmed move
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

+0.26%Confirmed move
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.092%Confirmed move
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.024%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?

Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.59%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night?

Moved up 23.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+23.480%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Jul 29, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved down 29.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-29.51%Likely noise
By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?

Moved down 34.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-34.016%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Fed leaves its target rate unchanged at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting

gap 0.9 pts
Polymarket75%Kalshi75%

Settled (598 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.