ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Tuesday, July 28, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?

Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-9.010%Confirmed move
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

+0.26%Confirmed move
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.092%Confirmed move
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.024%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?

Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.59%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night?

Moved up 23.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+23.480%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Jul 29, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved down 29.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-29.51%Likely noise
By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?

Moved down 34.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-34.016%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Fed leaves its target rate unchanged at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting

gap 0.9 pts
Polymarket75%Kalshi75%

Settled (598 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.