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Monday, July 27, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 63.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 6.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 47.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 49.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 49.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Fed leaves its target rate unchanged at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting
gap 0.8 ptsSettled (508 in 24h)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ETPolymarketyes
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ETPolymarketno
- Ethereum price at Jul 27, 2026 at 11pm EDT?Kalshino
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?Polymarketno
- Will 2 or more total HRs be hit in the Cardinals v Cubs game on 7/27?Manifoldyes
- Will the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Washington Nationals by 2 or more runs on Monday, July 27, 2026?Manifoldno
- Ethereum price at Jul 27, 2026 at 10pm EDT?Kalshino
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.