is the sun hotter than the moon?
Last traded probability
99.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Price historyManifold
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Awaiting resolution
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- July 28, 2026 at 6:05 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
is the sun hotter than the moon? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 99.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- July 28, 2026 at 8:11 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 25, 2026 at 6:46 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 28, 2026 at 6:05 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 88d ago
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