ProbCastOdds Reliability
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?0%▼27.9LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?100%▲35.5LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?100%▲11.0LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch?100%▲12.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?79%▲47.4Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?34%▼13.0LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch?0%▼12.4Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?66%▲13.0Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?82%▲3.5Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?65%▲11.0Fed rate hike in 2026?78%▲4.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?80%▲55.7Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?45%▼8.0Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?53%▲6.2Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?17%▼4.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?83%▼3.0

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Sunday, July 26, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.037%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-1.014%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.580%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?

Moved up 0.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+0.87%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will any cloned human organs, including the organs of viable cloned human infants, exist by EOY 2029?

Moved down 36.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-36.314%Likely noise
Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?

Moved down 25.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-25.824%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Jul 27, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved down 27.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-27.024%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Fed leaves its target rate unchanged at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting

gap 0.5 pts
Polymarket80%Kalshi81%

Settled (476 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.