Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 81.1%
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 81.1%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- August 31, 2026 at 9:02 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 25, 2026 at 7:49 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 55d ago
What this market actually measures
It's fine if it's in many pieces. If it gets scuttled or sinks for other reasons this resolves No.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
It's fine if it's in many pieces. If it gets scuttled or sinks for other reasons this resolves No. If only parts are recovered to shore, let's say that a major part is enough. I'm imagining either the full nosecone, or the full ship without the nosecone. Just the engine section is not enough. (I'm open to further resolution suggestions!) I'm not betting in this market since it can come down to a bit of a judgement question, if the resolution is ambiguous.