Odds Reliability Brief · archived edition · live feed →
Sunday, August 16, 2026
The day’s odds moves, sorted by whether the trading behind them can be believed — captured Aug 16, 11:51 PM ET.
Reliable moves
Repricings backed by real volume and healthy books.
Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Aug 16, 11:51 PM ET
Moved down 9.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Aug 16, 11:51 PM ET
Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Aug 16, 11:51 PM ET
Likely noise
Big swings without the trading to back them — easy to over-read.
Moved up 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Polymarket · Likely Noise · data as of Aug 16, 11:51 PM ET
Moved up 24.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Manifold · Likely Noise · data as of Aug 16, 11:51 PM ET
Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Kalshi · Likely Noise · data as of Aug 16, 11:51 PM ET
How the market called it
A recently settled market and what it was pricing 24 hours before the deadline.
Methodology: verdicts restate ProbCast’s existing Movement, Liquidity and Trust scores — a move is “reliable” when the repricing is backed by real volume, tight spreads and fresh prices, and “likely noise” when it isn’t. No new judgment is applied on this page. Full rules on the methodology page.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.