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Home/Crypto/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 26?
PolymarketCryptoUpdated 3m ago

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 26?

Market probability
26.5%
−47.5 percentage points
over 24 hours74.0% → 26.5%
Less than a day until the event deadline
Deadline: August 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, an unusually wide spread. The probability moved another 51.7 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, an unusually wide spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Unsettled

The probability moved another 51.7 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$8.7K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 47.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (74.0% → 26.5%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 26, 11:09 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±34 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Market data

24h volume

$77K

Liquidity

$20.1K

Total volume

$157.7K

Category
Crypto
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Change (pts)1H-51.76H-51.724H-47.57D-47.5
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement100

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity61

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Probability moved 51.7 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
  • Flow one-directional across 57 participants (broad, not a single order)

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go nextmodel estimate
  • Thin-liquidity spike52%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting23%
  • Stable consensus12%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityLow· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

—
Spread
8.9 pts
Best bid
22.0%
Best ask
30.9%
7-day range
26.5% – 78.2%
Resolves
Aug 26, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+43
  • Price steadiness+0
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Wide spread-15
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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