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Home/Crypto/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on August 26?
PolymarketCryptoUpdated 1m ago

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on August 26?

Market probability
0.1%
−1.9 percentage points
over 24 hours2.0% → 0.1%
Less than a day until the event deadline
Deadline: August 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

Confirmed repricing; the market has settled at the new level.

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Strong

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$215.8 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 26, 9:22 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±13 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

Market data

24h volume

$97.5K

Liquidity

$45.4K

Total volume

$114.8K

Category
Crypto
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Change (pts)1H-0.16H-0.124H-1.97D-1.9
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

63/ 100 · Medium

Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: expiring soon.

Settlement-stage — price is pinned near resolution. Read it as a settlement signal, not a fresh forecast.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement20

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Resolves in 0 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
22Low
Where the price path tends to go next39 observed
  • Stable consensus76%
  • Trend continuation14%
  • News repricing9%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3d
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Spread
0.0 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.1%
7-day range
0.1% – 2.0%
Resolves
Aug 26, 2026

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity81

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

63/100 · Medium

Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: expiring soon.

  • Liquidity anchor+57
  • Price steadiness+24
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score63 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 26?

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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