Market prices a 4.0% chance of “Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 6” — up 0.8 points in 24 hours
Original Polymarket title: “Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 6?”
Confirmed repricing; the market is settling at the new level.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (0.8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesAugust 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 6, 1:10 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±15 pts.
What's happening
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
Cross-venue check
55.7 pts apartManifold prices this same question at 60% vs Polymarket at 4%. That is a meaningful gap — when venues disagree, treat any single number with caution rather than as a settled probability.
Compare on Manifold →