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Home/Macro / Fed/Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 11m ago

Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?

Market probability
22.5%
−4 percentage points
over 24 hours26.5% → 22.5%
29 days until the scheduled event
Deadline: September 13, 2026 at 3:33 PM ET
Resolution follows the outcome of the scheduled event.

Confirmed repricing; the market is settling at the new level.

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Strong

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (4 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$20K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Counter-Strike 2 tournament at the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC 2026), currently scheduled for August 12 – August 23, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in …

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Counter-Strike 2 tournament at the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC 2026), currently scheduled for August 12 – August 23, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, the Esports World Cup; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 4.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (26.5% → 22.5%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The scheduled event takes placeSeptember 13, 2026 at 3:33 PM ET

    The contract resolves on the event's outcome.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 14, 3:36 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±18 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: meaningful

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-4.024H-4.07D-4.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

59/ 100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: limited history.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement60

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity78

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Probability moved 4.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
33Low
Where the price path tends to go next20 observed
  • Trend continuation48%
  • News repricing27%
  • Stable consensus16%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$103.6K

Liquidity

$47.6K

Total volume

$134.5K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
1.0 pts
Best bid
22.0%
Best ask
23.0%
7-day range
21.5% – 28.0%
Resolves
Sep 13, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

59/100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: limited history.

  • Liquidity anchor+55
  • Price steadiness+12
  • Limited history-8
Trust score59 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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