ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?82%▲67.2NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?4%▼30.8Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?29%▲24.4Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?50%▲42.2Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?92%▲31.0Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August?56%▲41.7NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?27%▼29.0Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?14%▲12.6Bitcoin Up or Down on August 22?79%▲20.0Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?27%▲10.0Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?36%▼10.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?66%▲1.0Fed rate hike in 2026?56%▲7.0Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in August?14%▼2.0Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?7%▼9.5Will Bitcoin be higher 14 days from now?88%▲29.5
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?82%▲67.2NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?4%▼30.8Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?29%▲24.4Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?50%▲42.2Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?92%▲31.0Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August?56%▲41.7NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?27%▼29.0Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?14%▲12.6Bitcoin Up or Down on August 22?79%▲20.0Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?27%▲10.0Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?36%▼10.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?66%▲1.0Fed rate hike in 2026?56%▲7.0Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in August?14%▼2.0Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?7%▼9.5Will Bitcoin be higher 14 days from now?88%▲29.5
Home/Macro / Fed/Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-08-21?
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 1h ago

Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-08-21?

Last traded probability
100.0%
+44.5 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
100.0%
Event deadline
August 21, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET
Venue status
closed
Resolution source
ligue1.com

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-08-21? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 100.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 21, 2026 at 5:20 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 21, 2026 at 6:27 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 21, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution

What this market actually measures

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 21, 2026 If Olympique de Marseille wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 21, 2026 If Olympique de Marseille wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Resolution source: ligue1.com

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

15/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity83

Depth of the order book and volume

Related markets

[Short Fuse] Will Bitcoin increase from August 22nd to 23nd?

56%YESTrust 19
ManifoldṀ207 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 21, 2026 at 7pm EDT?

5%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$674.3 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 21, 2026 at 7pm EDT?

9%YESTrust 0
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
Data updated
1h ago

Market data

24h volume

$188.3K

Liquidity

$232.5K

Total volume

$200.9K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
99.9%
Best ask
100.0%
7-day range
49.5% – 100.0%
Resolves
Aug 21, 2026
Resolution
ligue1.com

Trust breakdown

15/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+59
  • Price steadiness+0
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score15 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Kalshi
$59 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 21, 2026 at 7pm EDT?

8%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$47 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 21, 2026 at 7pm EDT?

10%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$29 24h

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

0%YESTrust 96
Polymarket$1.4M 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]