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PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 2m ago

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?

Last traded probability
100.0%
+0.5 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
100.0%
Event deadline
September 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Venue status
open
Resolution source
x.com

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 100.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
September 12, 2026 at 1:24 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 12, 2026 at 1:27 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
2m ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution source: x.com

Market data

24h volume

$79.9K

Liquidity

$51.3K

Total volume

$110K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
99.9%
Best ask
100.0%
7-day range
99.5% – 100.0%
Resolves
Sep 12, 2026
Resolution
x.com

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