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Home/Macro / Fed/Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 11m ago

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?

Last traded probability
0.1%
-0.1 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
0.1%
Event deadline
September 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Venue status
open
Resolution source
x.com

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.1%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
September 1, 2026 at 12:52 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 1, 2026 at 1:03 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 25 12:00 PM ET to September 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 25 12:00 PM ET to September 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution source: x.com

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

53/ 100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity81

Depth of the order book and volume

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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Data updated
11m ago

Market data

24h volume

$61.1K

Liquidity

$80.4K

Total volume

$140.7K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.0 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.1%
7-day range
0.1% – 0.1%
Resolves
Sep 1, 2026
Resolution
x.com

Trust breakdown

53/100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+57
  • Price steadiness+29
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
Trust score53 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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