Will Bitget resume withdrawals by September 30, 2026?
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
On September 24, 2026, Bitget suffered an exploit of approximately $387.5 million and announced that it was suspending withdrawals (https://x.com/bitget/status/2103236552482848927). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitget resumes withdrawals by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
On September 24, 2026, Bitget suffered an exploit of approximately $387.5 million and announced that it was suspending withdrawals (https://x.com/bitget/status/2103236552482848927). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitget resumes withdrawals by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Bitget must actually resume withdrawals for this market to resolve “Yes”. The resumption of withdrawals will qualify, even if partial in scope or if withdrawals are limited to certain assets, amounts, or subsets of users. Announcements of plans or intended timelines to resume withdrawals will not qualify. Isolated user reports of successful withdrawals will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Bitget, including clear designations on its platform that withdrawals are available; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 26, 5:42 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
- By Sep 272.9%
- By Sep 30 (this market)97.3%
Extending the deadline from Sep 27 to Sep 30 adds about 94.3 percentage points of implied probability.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Book runs out before absorbing a 5-pt move (fragile depth)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting93%
- Thin-liquidity spike2%
- Stable consensus2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$26.2K
Liquidity
$38.7K
Total volume
$0
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.2 pts
- Best bid
- 97.2%
- Best ask
- 97.4%
- 7-day range
- 96.8% – 97.4%
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026