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Home/Macro / Fed/Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 10m ago

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Market probability
28.5%
+1 percentage point
over 24 hours27.5% → 28.5%
Less than a day until the scheduled event
Deadline: August 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
Resolution follows the outcome of the scheduled event.

Confirmed repricing; the market has settled at the new level.

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Strong

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$33.4K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between TheMongolz and Natus Vincere in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for August 15 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Natus Vincere.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between TheMongolz and Natus Vincere in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for August 15 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against TheMongolz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

What could move this market next?

  • The scheduled event takes placeAugust 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET

    The contract resolves on the event's outcome.

  • Confirmation at the resolution source (hltv.org)

    The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 14, 3:34 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±13 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

Change (pts)1H0.06H+1.024H+1.07D+1.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

63/ 100 · Medium

Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: expiring soon.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement20

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity81

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto

Resolution source: hltv.org

  • Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
25Low
Where the price path tends to go next242 observed
  • Stable consensus91%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting4%
  • Trend continuation3%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~5h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$120.7K

Liquidity

$109.1K

Total volume

$122.5K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
1.0 pts
Best bid
28.0%
Best ask
29.0%
7-day range
27.5% – 28.5%
Resolves
Aug 15, 2026
Resolution
hltv.org

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

63/100 · Medium

Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: expiring soon.

  • Liquidity anchor+57
  • Price steadiness+24
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score63 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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