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Home/Macro / Fed/Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 5m ago

Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D

Market probability
47.5%
Little changed over 24 hours
1 day until the scheduled event
Deadline: August 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Resolution follows the outcome of the scheduled event.

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$22.8K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between magic and TheMongolz in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for August 12 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against TheMongolz.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between magic and TheMongolz in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for August 12 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against TheMongolz. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against magic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

What could move this market next?

  • The scheduled event takes placeAugust 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

    The contract resolves on the event's outcome.

  • Confirmation at the resolution source (hltv.org)

    The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 11, 2:37 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.

Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven

A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

47/ 100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement0

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity78

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
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Resolution source: hltv.org

  • Tight spread on a liquid, calm market

The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
53Medium
Where the price path tends to go next395 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting94%
  • Stable consensus2%
  • Thin-liquidity spike2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$48.4K

Liquidity

$79.8K

Total volume

$48.6K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
1.0 pts
Best bid
47.0%
Best ask
48.0%
7-day range
47.5% – 47.5%
Resolves
Aug 12, 2026
Resolution
hltv.org

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

47/100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+55
  • Price steadiness+30
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score47 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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