Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
StrongThe pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for August 16 at 1:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for August 16 at 1:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution source: mlb.com
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeAugust 23, 2026 at 1:35 PM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (mlb.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 16, 5:43 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±10 pts.
What's happening
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
Market data
24h volume
$201.8K
Liquidity
$174.1K
Total volume
$202.2K