Will we get AGI before 2030?

The probability decreased by 2.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours. No meaningful probability movement was detected over the past 24 hours.

• ·Trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
• ·The probability has barely moved over the past day.

Resolution

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience. Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030 MOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor) This market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI?‌ as its baseline. If that resolves NO for this market's year (and every year earlier), this also resolves NO. If it resolves YES, we dig into the nitty gritty. Please see THIS COMMENT from the 2026 market for more guidance about what a YES resolution might look like. Here are markets with the same criteria: @/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 (this question) @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 Related markets: @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 Other questions for 2030: @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa @/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4 @/RemNi/will-vladimir-putin-be-the-leader-o-52c0e8d8ea7f @/RemNi/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-e48b02725ad9 @/RemNi/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-32f2cbfe20ce@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor @/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 @/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594 Solar system exploration questions: @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58 Other points of reference for AGI: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid (Identical market to: source market)