Loading dashboard…
Loading dashboard…
Loading market detail…
The probability decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours. No meaningful probability movement was detected over the past 24 hours.
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war The current Manifold probability is 35.5%, down 2.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as Stable with medium confidence because trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
Before February 24th 2022, the administration of the Donbas region was split between the LPR, the DPR, and Ukraine. Part of the announced goals of the Russian invasion is to gain control of the entire region. This market resolves to yes if 1) a peace treaty is signed between Ukraine and Russia 2) the treaty requires Ukraine to relinquish control over the entire Donbas region. Picture for reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas#/media/File:Map_of_Donbas_region.svg (Identical market to: source market)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]