Will Ukraine accept a peace deal that cedes contested land in Donetsk and/or Luhansk?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market is resolved when a permanent peace treaty is signed between Ukrainian and Russian governments, or the total capitulation of either side. Sep 29, 9:44pm: added capitulation clause.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market is resolved when a permanent peace treaty is signed between Ukrainian and Russian governments, or the total capitulation of either side. Sep 29, 9:44pm: added capitulation clause. Oct 1, 12:37pm: A temporary ceasefire that lasts over a year without casualties, while Russia still occupies the territories in question will resolve market to YES. Close date updated to 2025-12-23 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2053-12-23 11:59 pm (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 23, 2053 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 18, 11:25 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ199.1
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 64.1%
- Resolves
- Dec 23, 2053